Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
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Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
Hektorović wrote:debotoijusto wrote:Hektorović wrote:AssadNaPodmornici wrote:Inače Amerika je počevši od Trumpa najviše za vrijeme Trumpa pokušavala smirit stanje po svijetu.
Trump je praktički pomirio cijeli arapski svijet sa Izraelom(osim Sirije) .
Da je Trump ostao na vlasti, ovog rata nebi bilo.
bilo bi i ukrajina bi pala ... zatim bi isao dalje kad prikupi snage
Gluposti. Trump je prvi probio led za slanje ozbiljnog oružja Ukrajini.
Trump bi eskalirao prije samog rata.
kako ovo sad kad trump nije izazvao/poticao nikakve ratove ? daj se dogovorite sami sa sobom
debotoijusto- Posts : 31574
2014-04-12
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
debotoijusto wrote:Hektorović wrote:debotoijusto wrote:Hektorović wrote:AssadNaPodmornici wrote:Inače Amerika je počevši od Trumpa najviše za vrijeme Trumpa pokušavala smirit stanje po svijetu.
Trump je praktički pomirio cijeli arapski svijet sa Izraelom(osim Sirije) .
Da je Trump ostao na vlasti, ovog rata nebi bilo.
bilo bi i ukrajina bi pala ... zatim bi isao dalje kad prikupi snage
Gluposti. Trump je prvi probio led za slanje ozbiljnog oružja Ukrajini.
Trump bi eskalirao prije samog rata.
kako ovo sad kad trump nije izazvao/poticao nikakve ratove ? daj se dogovorite sami sa sobom
lipo ti je objasnio Trump je prvi koji je poslao neko oružje Ukraini, Obama se nije usudio "da ne isprovocira Rusiju", zapravo nitko na zapadu nije poslao ništa , izuzev par kontra radarskih sustava, i đipova,
Trump je prvi poslao ozbiljno oružje, Stingere i Javeline i jednostavno Putin je šutio kao zaliven a demokrati su ga napadali "da provocira Ruse".
Da je on vidio da će Rusi krenuti u Ukrainu, to se već znalo 2mjeseca prije, drugi dan bi krenuli HIMARSI, haubice, bile bi brutalne prijetnje, njegova taktika je mrkve i batine. Sa druge strane i Zelenskom bi rekao da ništa od NATOa i neke druge stvari koje su Rusi koristili kao izliku(lažne izlike). Na kraju krajeva bi spojio Putina i Zelenskog na pregovarački stol.. ovako je svatko upira svoju priču, dok Zelenski zadnjih par dana nije skužio da rat vjerojatno kreće a onda je Putin odbijao pregovore već je otišao predaleko sa pripremama(tada me je miha zva na mobitel i objasnio mi kako će rat krenuti).
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May Allah destroy Australia
AssadNaPodmornici- Posts : 22273
2018-06-14
Charles III likes this post
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
AssadNaPodmornici wrote: ovako je svatko upira svoju priču, dok Zelenski zadnjih par dana nije skužio da rat vjerojatno kreće a onda je Putin odbijao pregovore već je otišao predaleko sa pripremama(tada me je miha zva na mobitel i objasnio mi kako će rat krenuti).
by AssadNaPodmornici Sun 23 Jan - 10:59
onda jel krenuo rat?
jesu li rusi krenuli u oslobađanje ukraine, kako najavljuje index, perica jihadi, perzijanac alpha, ringo i drugi?
23.01.2022
RayMabus- Posts : 184105
2014-04-11
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
Ovo šta mi sad gledamo zove se rat za Putinovu guzicu. Zašto ? Zato šta se on zajeba i sad ne zna šta će a ne može se povuć tako lako i onda ajd ratujte i dalje a u osnovi je potučen.
Mislin mogu oni razarat Ukrajinu raketama al su vojno potučeni.
Mislin mogu oni razarat Ukrajinu raketama al su vojno potučeni.
RayMabus- Posts : 184105
2014-04-11
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
Bjelorusija se ozbiljno priprema za eventualne ofenzivne akcije!
MDMiridije- Posts : 183
2022-10-01
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
AssadNaPodmornici wrote:debotoijusto wrote:Hektorović wrote:
Gluposti. Trump je prvi probio led za slanje ozbiljnog oružja Ukrajini.
Trump bi eskalirao prije samog rata.
kako ovo sad kad trump nije izazvao/poticao nikakve ratove ? daj se dogovorite sami sa sobom
lipo ti je objasnio Trump je prvi koji je poslao neko oružje Ukraini, Obama se nije usudio "da ne isprovocira Rusiju", zapravo nitko na zapadu nije poslao ništa , izuzev par kontra radarskih sustava, i đipova,
Trump je prvi poslao ozbiljno oružje, Stingere i Javeline i jednostavno Putin je šutio kao zaliven a demokrati su ga napadali "da provocira Ruse".
Da je on vidio da će Rusi krenuti u Ukrainu, to se već znalo 2mjeseca prije, drugi dan bi krenuli HIMARSI, haubice, bile bi brutalne prijetnje, njegova taktika je mrkve i batine. Sa druge strane i Zelenskom bi rekao da ništa od NATOa i neke druge stvari koje su Rusi koristili kao izliku(lažne izlike). Na kraju krajeva bi spojio Putina i Zelenskog na pregovarački stol.. ovako je svatko upira svoju priču, dok Zelenski zadnjih par dana nije skužio da rat vjerojatno kreće a onda je Putin odbijao pregovore već je otišao predaleko sa pripremama(tada me je miha zva na mobitel i objasnio mi kako će rat krenuti).
Sjetimo se, spin je bio "Trump je luđak, Trump će pokrenuti WW3".
Trump je bio prvi koji je ozbiljno naoružao Ukrajinu sa lakim naoružanjem kako bi odvratio Ruse. Bidenova administracija uz "misli i molitve" prvih par mjeseci rata slala samo isto to oružje koje je Trump odobrio pod potpuno drugim uvjetima. Istovremeno još su prije 12 mjeseci znali što Rusija sprema, znači bez problema su mogli krenuti slati ozbiljno teško uružje još u 11-12 mjesecu 2021. No očekivanja su bila kako će Ukrajinci pasti za par tjedana najviše, pa su uz puno pompe samo slali ovo od prije već odobreno, da ne ispadne kako ništa ne rade. Trump nije radio pompu oko toga no Rusi su itekako bili svjesni da je Trump spreman eskalirati.
Jedini razlog što su Ukrajinci preživjeli prvotni napad je do tog oružja koje je Trump odobrio, na kojem su imali dovoljno vremena za obuku, i samih Ukrajinaca.
Hektorović- Posts : 26373
2018-04-10
AssadNaPodmornici and Charles III like this post
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
..i dalje tvrdim ako ukrajina zeli dobiti rat..u konacnici..tesko ce to izvuci do kraja sa zelenskim...on mi vise djeluje kao pr..sto bi mu bila prava uloga...ukrajini u ovoj fazi rata upravo zreba politicar poput tudjmana koji zna manevrirati i po politickim i po vojnim pitanjima...zelenski i dalje radi gresku sto se navlaci na ruske spinove poput prljave bombe i opravdava se...iskusni predsjednik bi pozvao medjunarodnu komisiju u kojoj mogu biti i oni koji podtzavaju rusiju..pa nek provjere taj ruski spin..tudjman je upravo to znao napraviti i raskrinkati srpsku laz..kad su srbi tvrdili da hrvati pale gume u dubrovniku ili se samogranatiraju pozvao je medjunarodne komisije ili politicare na lice mjesta..a to je ono sto zelenski rijetko cini vec se upusta u ping pong prepucavanja sa putinom i rusima...i zato mnogi u svijetu narocito oni koji jos drze stranu rusiji vjeruju putinu..
vuksadinare- Posts : 100241
2015-09-08
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
Zelenski je odličan predsjednik, pun kurac sposobniji od Putina ili od bilo koga u RH. ne znam kakve gluposti mlatiš
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May Allah destroy Australia
AssadNaPodmornici- Posts : 22273
2018-06-14
michaellcmacha likes this post
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
ne mlatim pendrek...putin mu je uvalio spin o prljavoj bombi i sad se koprca..i sad ga vade ameri i briti...jer se ne zna iskoprcatiAssadNaPodmornici wrote:Zelenski je odličan predsjednik, pun kurac sposobniji od Putina ili od bilo koga u RH. ne znam kakve gluposti mlatiš
...ali ima jednu dobru stvar...sto hrvatskoj bas ne vjeruje i ne samo zbog zokija...vec i plenkija koliko god se ovaj upirao u potpori...zato se nikad nije javio nama linkom do sad do ovog sastanka jer da ne ispadne bas pizda...zasto nam bas ne vjeruje..rvo dokaza..hrvatska ima danas porast izvoza u rusiju bez obzira na sankcije
putinov pak gaf je ovaj sa irancima..no tu je bilo vise po onoj 'sila boga ne moli'...i zbog irana uvodi izrael koji je do sad bio suzdrzan u ovaj rat
...macron opet ima namjeru da se obnovi dijelom komunikacija sa putinom..sve ima svoje..nista tu nije gotovo...zelenski bi trebao takticki sve vise razmisljati u se i u svoje kljuse..i poceti pragmaticno voditi politiku i prema zapadu...vidimo da na zapadu ali i u americi desavaju se poprilicne politicke turbulencije..i da rastu oni koji su skepticni prema ukrajini a nije da su bez simpatija za putina ponajvise iz ekonomskih razloga..javno ce svi osudjivati putina aki ispod pulta vidimo i da nije tako..
....vidimo putinovu propagandu koja ima iskreno uspjeha medju americkim republikancima koji ce vjerojatno preuzeti kongres..i vec najavljuju da ce prekinuti isporuku oruzja ukrajini..ako zelenski ne pristane na pregovore sa putinom...sto putin u stvari zeli..da dobije na vremenu..ukrajina bez americkog oruzja tesko moze vise ista uciniti sto se tice daljnjeg oslobadjanja okupiranih podrucja..a druge clanice nato-a ne mogu dati toliko oruzja ukrajini koliko amer...plus sto republikanci trumpovim stilom ce traziti ultimativno da ostale nato clanice daju oruzje ukrajini koliko i amerika..sto je gotovo nemoguce...zato se zoki zadnjih dana vratio na retoriku koju je imao na pocetku rata..a ocito je da osim plenkija unutar hdz-a su poceli suzdrzanije govoriti o ovom ratu..
cak i imbex je poceo zakljucivati ono sto ja ovdje pisem..da nije gotovo dok nije gotovo
https://www.index.hr/mobile/vijesti/clanak/rusija-sad-zeli-desotonizirati-ukrajinu-ukrajina-slijedi-najteza-bitka-dosad/2406466.aspx?index_ref=naslovnica_vijesti_ostalo_m
dosta ovisi i o hersonu...tu se dosta toga odlucuje..zapad ocekuje da ukri rjese herson u svoju korist da bi imali nesto tvrdo da salju oruzje..ako ruje uspiju zadrzat herson...mogli bi puno profitirati..kako u motivaciji tako jos vise politicki...uglavnom jednoj drugoj trecoj strani treba nesto opipljivo...
vuksadinare- Posts : 100241
2015-09-08
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
Ma daj mlim te, tko još vjeruj putinu i njegovim lažljivim trbuhozborcima? Nigdje nikakve logike da Ukri to urade, da rokaju svoju zemlju smećem koji bi onemogućio bilo kakav život na tom dijelu a plus toga da riskirju nuklearnu odmazdu rusije. Pa oni ne gađaju naselja jer žele poštedjeti infrastrukturu i stanovništvo a kamoli da bi to usrali sa tim radioaktivnim smećem.vuksadinare wrote:ne mlatim pendrek...putin mu je uvalio spin o prljavoj bombi i sad se koprca..i sad ga vade ameri i briti...jer se ne zna iskoprcatiAssadNaPodmornici wrote:Zelenski je odličan predsjednik, pun kurac sposobniji od Putina ili od bilo koga u RH. ne znam kakve gluposti mlatiš
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Šandor Winnetou-
Posts : 19785
2017-12-31
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
...ne podcjenjuj putina i ruje..podcjenjivanje je majka svih zajeba...treba se medjunarodna komisija da se posalje i da razotkrije putinov spin...a ne obrana 'nije on majke mi'...rusi su promjenili taktiku ne vojnu nego propagandnu koju su pojacali..i vidimo da to i nije bez odredjenih uspjeha narocito u dosta eu clanica...zato kazem da danas ukrajini treba predsjednik tudjmanovog kalibrsŠandor Winnetou wrote:Ma daj mlim te, tko još vjeruj putinu i njegovim lažljivim trbuhozborcima? Nigdje nikakve logike da Ukri to urade, da rokaju svoju zemlju smećem koji bi onemogućio bilo kakav život na tom dijelu a plus toga da riskirju nuklearnu odmazdu rusije. Pa oni ne gađaju naselja jer žele poštedjeti infrastrukturu i stanovništvo a kamoli da bi to usrali sa tim radioaktivnim smećem.vuksadinare wrote:ne mlatim pendrek...putin mu je uvalio spin o prljavoj bombi i sad se koprca..i sad ga vade ameri i briti...jer se ne zna iskoprcatiAssadNaPodmornici wrote:Zelenski je odličan predsjednik, pun kurac sposobniji od Putina ili od bilo koga u RH. ne znam kakve gluposti mlatiš
vuksadinare- Posts : 100241
2015-09-08
marcellus- Posts : 46005
2014-04-16
melkior likes this post
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
AssadNaPodmornici wrote:Zelenski je odličan predsjednik, pun kurac sposobniji od Putina ili od bilo koga u RH. ne znam kakve gluposti mlatiš
Najbolji je dok mu šalju milijarde i oružje i hranu i svaki quratz. Viditi ćemo kakav će biti kad bude morao dati u Ukrainu (ili šta bude ostalo) u koncesiju trenutnim sponzorima. A istim tim sponzorima je prije rata bio najkorumpiraniji predsjednik tako da...
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catabbath-
Posts : 12437
2015-08-22
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
pobrisao sam offtopic, a to je moje komentiranje kako bi tema trebala izgledati i pravila pisanja..
i spojio sam vukove komentare/polu spam u jedan veći post da izgleda normalnije.. nemojte da vam spajam, sami se koncetrirajte ili kliknite edit, a ne post ispod posta, a svaki ima pola rečenice ili još jače hrpa vas quota sebe i više puta,
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Što se tiče napredovanja Ukrainaca.
Navodno su došli dosta blizu Svatovima.
Tu su Rusi imali dosta vremena da pripreme obranu čak su i pokretali neke kontra napade valjda da daju obrani vremena za pripremu, i sve jedno , Ukrainci napreduju,
Naravno ne ide bez gubitaka za Ukraince(a i Ruse) evo navodni video gdje RU helikopter uništava dva UKR oklopna vozila
što se tiče ostatka fronte, artiljerijski dueli, precizni udari Ukrainaca po pozadini.. iako ima snimki gdje Ukrainci imaju gubitaka po Hersonu, ima dosta snimki gdje izgube na svakom videu vozilo -dva
evo ovdje; https://twitter.com/200_zoka
Dakle taj Herson je jebački utvrđen od strane Rusa, ne znam kako da Ukrainci probiju to, teško je za osvajanje.. možda je najbolje da odjebu Herson, drže tamo puno manje vojske, samo za održavanje osvojenog i mlate ih artiljeriom, a onda pokušaju neki proboj sa istočne strane dnjepra.. time bi tih +20 000 vojnika(koji imaju više teškog oružja na tom malom području sa zapadne strane Dnjepra nego vojska Srbija koja ima daleko najviše teškog oružja na EX_YU)
i spojio sam vukove komentare/polu spam u jedan veći post da izgleda normalnije.. nemojte da vam spajam, sami se koncetrirajte ili kliknite edit, a ne post ispod posta, a svaki ima pola rečenice ili još jače hrpa vas quota sebe i više puta,
---
Što se tiče napredovanja Ukrainaca.
Navodno su došli dosta blizu Svatovima.
Tu su Rusi imali dosta vremena da pripreme obranu čak su i pokretali neke kontra napade valjda da daju obrani vremena za pripremu, i sve jedno , Ukrainci napreduju,
Naravno ne ide bez gubitaka za Ukraince(a i Ruse) evo navodni video gdje RU helikopter uništava dva UKR oklopna vozila
što se tiče ostatka fronte, artiljerijski dueli, precizni udari Ukrainaca po pozadini.. iako ima snimki gdje Ukrainci imaju gubitaka po Hersonu, ima dosta snimki gdje izgube na svakom videu vozilo -dva
evo ovdje; https://twitter.com/200_zoka
Dakle taj Herson je jebački utvrđen od strane Rusa, ne znam kako da Ukrainci probiju to, teško je za osvajanje.. možda je najbolje da odjebu Herson, drže tamo puno manje vojske, samo za održavanje osvojenog i mlate ih artiljeriom, a onda pokušaju neki proboj sa istočne strane dnjepra.. time bi tih +20 000 vojnika(koji imaju više teškog oružja na tom malom području sa zapadne strane Dnjepra nego vojska Srbija koja ima daleko najviše teškog oružja na EX_YU)
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May Allah destroy Australia
AssadNaPodmornici- Posts : 22273
2018-06-14
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
Russia’s military Keynesianism
The Kremlin’s strategy to redistribute wealth through the war effort may boost its legitimacy.
Published On 26 Oct 202226 Oct 2022
[ltr][url=https://twitter.com/share?text=Russia%E2%80%99s military keynesianism&source=sharethiscom&related=sharethis&via=AJEnglish&url=https%3A%2F%2Faje.io%2F7rrkxe][/url][/ltr]
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu meet soldiers during a visit at a military training centre of the Western Military District for mobilised reservists, outside the town of Ryazan on October 20, 2022 [Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik via AFP]
In late September, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “partial” mobilisation in Russia, as he forced through the annexation of four occupied regions in southeastern Ukraine after sham referendums. As many have pointed out, the draft broke an informal social contract between Putin and the Russian population, in which the Russian president provided not high but at least tolerable living standards and stability in exchange for political passivity.
Now, many expect the draft to change everything. Soon the corpses of poorly trained soldiers, sent as cannon fodder to the battlefield to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive, will begin returning to their families, stirring public anger. According to this reasoning, this, along with the economic impact of sanctions, could result in popular unrest, which would necessitate further repression.
The Kremlin would not be able to last long on sheer coercion. To score a military victory, Putin may be tempted to use a tactical nuclear weapon or some other wildly escalatory option that would likely deprive him of his unreliable allies in the world. Then he would either bury the whole world with him or be removed by a Russian elite scared for their own lives.
The problem with this line of thinking is that more repression is not the only option for Putin and is not the only basis of his regime. To understand the other direction he could take, it is important to look at the political economy dimension of recent developments.
When declaring the “partial” mobilisation, Putin emphasised that drafted Russian soldiers would be paid the same as the contract soldiers who have been the backbone of the Russian forces in Ukraine so far. This means they should be paid at least $3,000 per month, depending on military rank, bonuses, insurance and a generous welfare package. This is about five to six times higher than the median wage in Russia. Drafting 300,000, let alone more than one million soldiers – as some media reports have claimed may be the real target – would necessitate the redistribution of billions of dollars from the Russian state budget.
There were reports of chaos in the payment arrangements in the first weeks since the start of mobilisation. However, at an October 19 meeting of Russia’s Security Council, Putin ordered that all problems with military wages be resolved, showing that the high remuneration for mobilised soldiers and support for their families is an important part of his strategy.
Add to that the money flowing to the reconstruction of the ruined Mariupol and other heavily destroyed Ukrainian cities in the newly annexed regions of southeastern Ukraine. Currently, workers from across Russia are recruited for the reconstruction effort and are offered double the amount they would make at home. Even a non-qualified construction worker receives more than $1,000 a month.
Recently, Russian deputy prime minister Marat Khusnullin said more than 30,000 Russian workers are employed in the reconstruction of occupied Ukrainian territories, and that the government plans to increase the number to 50,000-60,000.
In the next three years, the Russian budget is expected to allocate at least $6bn for the reconstruction of the newly annexed Ukrainian territories. How much of it will not be lost to Russian crony capitalism remains to be seen.
There are also a lot of funds flowing into the military-industrial complex. As demand for weapons and munitions has increased significantly, the number of workers, as well as wages, has grown. At least partially, the growth in the military-industrial complex compensates for the decline of production in the industries dependent on Western components and suffering from sanctions. In other sectors, employees who have been drafted into the army have left jobs to be filled by new workers, which decreases unemployment.
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All in all, the state expenditure for “national defence” has already increased 43 percent from last year to this year and reached $74bn. A planned cut for 2023 has been scrapped and instead Moscow plans to spend some $80bn. The “national security and law enforcement” expenses are also expected to increase by 46 percent to $70bn next year.
Looking at all these developments, we see something like military Keynesianism taking shape in Russia. Millions of Russians who are either mobilised to fight in Ukraine, employed in reconstruction or in the military industry, or participating in the suppression of unrest in the occupied territories and at home, or are family members, have turned into direct beneficiaries of the war.
Among other things, this means the emergence of a positive feedback loop that did not really exist before. The Russian ruling elite started the war to pursue its own interests and it managed to get only ritual and passive support from the Russian population.
However, this redistribution of state wealth through the military effort is creating a new basis for more active and conscious support within a significant section of Russian society, which now has a material stake in the conflict.
The fact that a full-scale invasion and occupation of a large part of the Ukrainian territory would require some fundamental changes in the Russian socio-political order was predictable even before February 24. Soon after the start of the invasion, I wrote the following: “[t]he Russian state would need to buy the loyalty of Russians and subjugated nations by less fiscally conservative and more Keynesian economic policies. […] Instead of the empty rhetoric of “de-Nazification” which has clearly been insufficient to inspire enthusiasm for the war within Russian society, this would require a more coherent imperialist-conservative project connecting the interests of the Russian elites to the interests of the subaltern classes and nations.”
The Kremlin’s strategy of combining coercion with bribing a significant part of the population has helped keep anti-war protests relatively small, as most Russians have obediently accepted the mobilisation. The disproportionate number of people drafted from the poorer parts of Russia might have to do not only with the Kremlin’s fear of protests from more opposition-minded residents of the big cities but also with its calculation that the monetary incentives it offers would be of greater value to the residents of more deprived peripheral regions.
The crucial question, of course, is for how long military Keynesianism will be sustainable in Russia. The classical imperialist positive feedback loops relied on technologically advanced industrial production. The conquered territories and colonies provided new markets and supplied the raw materials and cheap labour to expand production even more.
The profits were then shared with the “labour aristocracy” at home who benefitted from the imperialist expansion and subjugation. The bloc formed between the imperialist ruling classes and segments of the working classes became the basis of the hegemonic regimes and precluded social revolutions in Western metropolises.
Whether Ukraine can provide any of the above for the Russian economy is highly questionable. Furthermore, many expect that the long-term impact of sanctions would cripple the Russian economy and lead to its primitivisation.
That leaves the flow of petrodollars as the main source of funding to buy loyalty. That, however, depends on the successful reorientation and sufficient growth of China and India’s economies to sustain the demand for Russian energy resources. No less important would be reforming Russian state institutions in order to manage revenues more efficiently rather than lose them to incompetence and corruption.
But if the Russian regime is capable of transforming and strengthening in response to the existential challenge rather than collapse, it means that Russia could be ready for a longer and more devastating war.
Russian military Keynesianism contrasts sharply with the Ukrainian government’s decision to stick to neoliberal dogmas of privatisation, lowering taxes and extreme labour deregulation, despite the objective imperatives of the war economy. Some top-notch Western economists have even recommended to Ukraine policies that constitute what British historian Adam Tooze has termed “warfare without the state”.
In a long war of attrition, such policies leave Ukraine even more dependent not only on Western weapons but also on the steady flow of Western money to sustain the Ukrainian economy. Making oneself fundamentally dependent on Western support may be not a safe bet, especially if your adversary is in it for the long haul.[/size]
The Kremlin’s strategy to redistribute wealth through the war effort may boost its legitimacy.
Volodymyr Ishchenko
Research associate at the Institute of East European Studies, Freie Universität Berlin
Published On 26 Oct 202226 Oct 2022
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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu meet soldiers during a visit at a military training centre of the Western Military District for mobilised reservists, outside the town of Ryazan on October 20, 2022 [Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik via AFP]
In late September, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “partial” mobilisation in Russia, as he forced through the annexation of four occupied regions in southeastern Ukraine after sham referendums. As many have pointed out, the draft broke an informal social contract between Putin and the Russian population, in which the Russian president provided not high but at least tolerable living standards and stability in exchange for political passivity.
Now, many expect the draft to change everything. Soon the corpses of poorly trained soldiers, sent as cannon fodder to the battlefield to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive, will begin returning to their families, stirring public anger. According to this reasoning, this, along with the economic impact of sanctions, could result in popular unrest, which would necessitate further repression.
The Kremlin would not be able to last long on sheer coercion. To score a military victory, Putin may be tempted to use a tactical nuclear weapon or some other wildly escalatory option that would likely deprive him of his unreliable allies in the world. Then he would either bury the whole world with him or be removed by a Russian elite scared for their own lives.
The problem with this line of thinking is that more repression is not the only option for Putin and is not the only basis of his regime. To understand the other direction he could take, it is important to look at the political economy dimension of recent developments.
When declaring the “partial” mobilisation, Putin emphasised that drafted Russian soldiers would be paid the same as the contract soldiers who have been the backbone of the Russian forces in Ukraine so far. This means they should be paid at least $3,000 per month, depending on military rank, bonuses, insurance and a generous welfare package. This is about five to six times higher than the median wage in Russia. Drafting 300,000, let alone more than one million soldiers – as some media reports have claimed may be the real target – would necessitate the redistribution of billions of dollars from the Russian state budget.
There were reports of chaos in the payment arrangements in the first weeks since the start of mobilisation. However, at an October 19 meeting of Russia’s Security Council, Putin ordered that all problems with military wages be resolved, showing that the high remuneration for mobilised soldiers and support for their families is an important part of his strategy.
Add to that the money flowing to the reconstruction of the ruined Mariupol and other heavily destroyed Ukrainian cities in the newly annexed regions of southeastern Ukraine. Currently, workers from across Russia are recruited for the reconstruction effort and are offered double the amount they would make at home. Even a non-qualified construction worker receives more than $1,000 a month.
Recently, Russian deputy prime minister Marat Khusnullin said more than 30,000 Russian workers are employed in the reconstruction of occupied Ukrainian territories, and that the government plans to increase the number to 50,000-60,000.
In the next three years, the Russian budget is expected to allocate at least $6bn for the reconstruction of the newly annexed Ukrainian territories. How much of it will not be lost to Russian crony capitalism remains to be seen.
There are also a lot of funds flowing into the military-industrial complex. As demand for weapons and munitions has increased significantly, the number of workers, as well as wages, has grown. At least partially, the growth in the military-industrial complex compensates for the decline of production in the industries dependent on Western components and suffering from sanctions. In other sectors, employees who have been drafted into the army have left jobs to be filled by new workers, which decreases unemployment.
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All in all, the state expenditure for “national defence” has already increased 43 percent from last year to this year and reached $74bn. A planned cut for 2023 has been scrapped and instead Moscow plans to spend some $80bn. The “national security and law enforcement” expenses are also expected to increase by 46 percent to $70bn next year.
Looking at all these developments, we see something like military Keynesianism taking shape in Russia. Millions of Russians who are either mobilised to fight in Ukraine, employed in reconstruction or in the military industry, or participating in the suppression of unrest in the occupied territories and at home, or are family members, have turned into direct beneficiaries of the war.
Among other things, this means the emergence of a positive feedback loop that did not really exist before. The Russian ruling elite started the war to pursue its own interests and it managed to get only ritual and passive support from the Russian population.
However, this redistribution of state wealth through the military effort is creating a new basis for more active and conscious support within a significant section of Russian society, which now has a material stake in the conflict.
The fact that a full-scale invasion and occupation of a large part of the Ukrainian territory would require some fundamental changes in the Russian socio-political order was predictable even before February 24. Soon after the start of the invasion, I wrote the following: “[t]he Russian state would need to buy the loyalty of Russians and subjugated nations by less fiscally conservative and more Keynesian economic policies. […] Instead of the empty rhetoric of “de-Nazification” which has clearly been insufficient to inspire enthusiasm for the war within Russian society, this would require a more coherent imperialist-conservative project connecting the interests of the Russian elites to the interests of the subaltern classes and nations.”
The Kremlin’s strategy of combining coercion with bribing a significant part of the population has helped keep anti-war protests relatively small, as most Russians have obediently accepted the mobilisation. The disproportionate number of people drafted from the poorer parts of Russia might have to do not only with the Kremlin’s fear of protests from more opposition-minded residents of the big cities but also with its calculation that the monetary incentives it offers would be of greater value to the residents of more deprived peripheral regions.
The crucial question, of course, is for how long military Keynesianism will be sustainable in Russia. The classical imperialist positive feedback loops relied on technologically advanced industrial production. The conquered territories and colonies provided new markets and supplied the raw materials and cheap labour to expand production even more.
The profits were then shared with the “labour aristocracy” at home who benefitted from the imperialist expansion and subjugation. The bloc formed between the imperialist ruling classes and segments of the working classes became the basis of the hegemonic regimes and precluded social revolutions in Western metropolises.
Whether Ukraine can provide any of the above for the Russian economy is highly questionable. Furthermore, many expect that the long-term impact of sanctions would cripple the Russian economy and lead to its primitivisation.
That leaves the flow of petrodollars as the main source of funding to buy loyalty. That, however, depends on the successful reorientation and sufficient growth of China and India’s economies to sustain the demand for Russian energy resources. No less important would be reforming Russian state institutions in order to manage revenues more efficiently rather than lose them to incompetence and corruption.
But if the Russian regime is capable of transforming and strengthening in response to the existential challenge rather than collapse, it means that Russia could be ready for a longer and more devastating war.
Russian military Keynesianism contrasts sharply with the Ukrainian government’s decision to stick to neoliberal dogmas of privatisation, lowering taxes and extreme labour deregulation, despite the objective imperatives of the war economy. Some top-notch Western economists have even recommended to Ukraine policies that constitute what British historian Adam Tooze has termed “warfare without the state”.
In a long war of attrition, such policies leave Ukraine even more dependent not only on Western weapons but also on the steady flow of Western money to sustain the Ukrainian economy. Making oneself fundamentally dependent on Western support may be not a safe bet, especially if your adversary is in it for the long haul.[/size]
Hektorović- Posts : 26373
2018-04-10
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
stvarno Ukrainci imaju talenta za memove, glazbu itd :D
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AssadNaPodmornici- Posts : 22273
2018-06-14
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
a od kud tebi ideja da svaka država ima po jednog Tuđmana u datom trenutku i po potrebi... jebote tebe je informer poprilično mentalno deformirao...vuksadinare wrote:..i dalje tvrdim ako ukrajina zeli dobiti rat..u konacnici..tesko ce to izvuci do kraja sa zelenskim...on mi vise djeluje kao pr..sto bi mu bila prava uloga...ukrajini u ovoj fazi rata upravo zreba politicar poput tudjmana koji zna manevrirati i po politickim i po vojnim pitanjima...zelenski i dalje radi gresku sto se navlaci na ruske spinove poput prljave bombe i opravdava se...iskusni predsjednik bi pozvao medjunarodnu komisiju u kojoj mogu biti i oni koji podtzavaju rusiju..pa nek provjere taj ruski spin..tudjman je upravo to znao napraviti i raskrinkati srpsku laz..kad su srbi tvrdili da hrvati pale gume u dubrovniku ili se samogranatiraju pozvao je medjunarodne komisije ili politicare na lice mjesta..a to je ono sto zelenski rijetko cini vec se upusta u ping pong prepucavanja sa putinom i rusima...i zato mnogi u svijetu narocito oni koji jos drze stranu rusiji vjeruju putinu..
u stvari potpuno si u krivu, ukrajini uopće ne treba vođa ili državnik u tipu Tuđmana... jer ukrajina uopće nije u situaciji u kojoj je bila hrvatska... niti u ratnom niti u političkom smislu...
spominješ propuste po pitanju komunikacije sa međunarodnim institucijama, a ukrajina je doslovno 24 sata 7 dana u tjednu na izravnoj linijji sa svim najvažnijim svjetskim forumima... daj se okani onog srbijanskog smeća, vidiš da ti škodi... ako ne vidiš evo ja ti velim, a vjerujem i da se mnogi od forumskih kolega slažu
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"Snažni su duhom, njihova je vojska ustrajna jer brani svoju DOMOVINU"
michaellcmacha- Posts : 21325
2015-08-08
abraham, darth_vader, veber, melkior, dijagram, Šandor Winnetou and AssadNaPodmornici like this post
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
michaellcmacha wrote:a od kud tebi ideja da svaka država ima po jednog Tuđmana u datom trenutku i po potrebi... jebote tebe je informer poprilično mentalno deformirao...vuksadinare wrote:..i dalje tvrdim ako ukrajina zeli dobiti rat..u konacnici..tesko ce to izvuci do kraja sa zelenskim...on mi vise djeluje kao pr..sto bi mu bila prava uloga...ukrajini u ovoj fazi rata upravo zreba politicar poput tudjmana koji zna manevrirati i po politickim i po vojnim pitanjima...zelenski i dalje radi gresku sto se navlaci na ruske spinove poput prljave bombe i opravdava se...iskusni predsjednik bi pozvao medjunarodnu komisiju u kojoj mogu biti i oni koji podtzavaju rusiju..pa nek provjere taj ruski spin..tudjman je upravo to znao napraviti i raskrinkati srpsku laz..kad su srbi tvrdili da hrvati pale gume u dubrovniku ili se samogranatiraju pozvao je medjunarodne komisije ili politicare na lice mjesta..a to je ono sto zelenski rijetko cini vec se upusta u ping pong prepucavanja sa putinom i rusima...i zato mnogi u svijetu narocito oni koji jos drze stranu rusiji vjeruju putinu..
u stvari potpuno si u krivu, ukrajini uopće ne treba vođa ili državnik u tipu Tuđmana... jer ukrajina uopće nije u situaciji u kojoj je bila hrvatska... niti u ratnom niti u političkom smislu...
spominješ propuste po pitanju komunikacije sa međunarodnim institucijama, a ukrajina je doslovno 24 sata 7 dana u tjednu na izravnoj linijji sa svim najvažnijim svjetskim forumima... daj se okani onog srbijanskog smeća, vidiš da ti škodi... ako ne vidiš evo ja ti velim, a vjerujem i da se mnogi od forumskih kolega slažu
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Šandor Winnetou-
Posts : 19785
2017-12-31
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
mi se čudimo srbima i njihovoj percepciji stvarnosti... a gle našeg vučka, pobrko je lonce, poklopce a bogami i prešao skroz na leskovačku mućkalicu što bi bio sinonim za srbijanski bućkuriš...
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"Snažni su duhom, njihova je vojska ustrajna jer brani svoju DOMOVINU"
michaellcmacha- Posts : 21325
2015-08-08
melkior, Šandor Winnetou and AssadNaPodmornici like this post
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
AssadNaPodmornici wrote:Dakle taj Herson je jebački utvrđen od strane Rusa, ne znam kako da Ukrainci probiju to, teško je za osvajanje.. možda je najbolje da odjebu Herson, drže tamo puno manje vojske, samo za održavanje osvojenog i mlate ih artiljeriom, a onda pokušaju neki proboj sa istočne strane dnjepra.. time bi tih +20 000 vojnika(koji imaju više teškog oružja na tom malom području sa zapadne strane Dnjepra nego vojska Srbija koja ima daleko najviše teškog oružja na EX_YU)
O tome sam i ranije pisao ovdje. Možda izolirati tu ekipu, da ne mogu u ofenzivu i jednostavno ih iscrpiti. Zaokružiti ih vremenom s druge strane Dnjepra i dobro.
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Uostalom, mislim da Veliku Rusiju treba razoriti.
Charles III- Posts : 757
2022-09-14
marcellus and AssadNaPodmornici like this post
Re: Rat u Ukraini - ozbiljna(moja) tema
Uništeno je još jedno skladište ruskog streljiva. Maštovito mjesto za sakrivanje istoga...
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Uostalom, mislim da Veliku Rusiju treba razoriti.
Charles III- Posts : 757
2022-09-14
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