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crvenkasti-
Posts : 29707
2014-04-17
Re: Sirija
by crvenkasti Sat 27 Feb - 23:32
Oil-price.net has a long track record of successfully forecasting geopolitical risks tied to petroleum. In 2012 we predicted that armed militias would seize oil fields in Sudan, Libya and Nigeria and warned of the potential disaster that factions can cause in that region. The unintended consequences of the US invasion of Iraq switched the dominant religion in that country and created a Shia corridor from the heart of Afghanistan through to the Eastern Mediterranean coast; and made Saudi Arabia feel threatened.
The Saudi and Qatar plan to switch the Syrian government from Shia to Sunni promised the reward of a clear Sunni corridor from the gulf to the frontier of the European Union. However, their methods of achieving that goal drove Syria to plan a pipeline benefiting Iran and unleashed the chaos of extremist control of large areas of Iraq, Syria and Libya.
An unintended consequence of Europe's support for a Qatar-Syria gas pipeline free of Russian influence was the migrant crisis currently flooding Europe. The German government's idea to exploit the overwhelming tide of asylum seekers to gain cheap labor backfired into the de-unification of Europe.
The blowback caused by Saudi policy over the past few years extends beyond the Middle East, and it still hasn't played itself out.
The Saudi and Qatar plan to switch the Syrian government from Shia to Sunni promised the reward of a clear Sunni corridor from the gulf to the frontier of the European Union. However, their methods of achieving that goal drove Syria to plan a pipeline benefiting Iran and unleashed the chaos of extremist control of large areas of Iraq, Syria and Libya.
An unintended consequence of Europe's support for a Qatar-Syria gas pipeline free of Russian influence was the migrant crisis currently flooding Europe. The German government's idea to exploit the overwhelming tide of asylum seekers to gain cheap labor backfired into the de-unification of Europe.
The blowback caused by Saudi policy over the past few years extends beyond the Middle East, and it still hasn't played itself out.
crvenkasti-
Posts : 29707
2014-04-17
Re: Sirija
by crvenkasti Sat 27 Feb - 23:36
The Saudis intended to cripple Russia, Iran and US frackers through lower oil prices. However, all of those countries have joined the Saudis in increasing production since the price of oil started to fall in 2014.
If anyone is going to blink first, it won't be the USA, where some frackers have reduced their production costs from $70 per barrel to $20 per barrel.
Vladimir Putin based his entire political strategy on the exploitation of oil and gas, both as an income generator, and as a weapon against his perceived enemies. Russia's long term answer to the Saudi punch of lower oil prices had been in the making since Putin scared off the USA and the UK from bombing Syria. He didn't move his battleship to the Syrian coast as a gesture. He set himself up as the military overlord of Syria and took control of the one access point common to both the Iranian and Qatari pipelines.
The sudden revelation of the extent of Russia's involvement in Syria hit newsstands in early October 2015 when the Russian air force started bombing rebels in Syria. With international law on its side, Russia is defending the legitimate Syrian government against Saudi-backed terrorists.
Putin needs the income that his oil industry brings his government. The oil price drop and the Western sanctions against Russia hurt. His favorite industry, however, is gas. Russia controls 70 per cent of gas supplies to Europe and that brings him political advantages, as well as the ability to set falsely high gas prices. Europe's resolve to block trade with Russia will soon weaken during the freezing winter. With no hope of a pipeline bringing Middle Eastern gas through Syria, German-lead Europe will be easier to deal with. Russia is well placed to become Iran's new best friend. Putin is sitting pretty
If anyone is going to blink first, it won't be the USA, where some frackers have reduced their production costs from $70 per barrel to $20 per barrel.
Vladimir Putin based his entire political strategy on the exploitation of oil and gas, both as an income generator, and as a weapon against his perceived enemies. Russia's long term answer to the Saudi punch of lower oil prices had been in the making since Putin scared off the USA and the UK from bombing Syria. He didn't move his battleship to the Syrian coast as a gesture. He set himself up as the military overlord of Syria and took control of the one access point common to both the Iranian and Qatari pipelines.
The sudden revelation of the extent of Russia's involvement in Syria hit newsstands in early October 2015 when the Russian air force started bombing rebels in Syria. With international law on its side, Russia is defending the legitimate Syrian government against Saudi-backed terrorists.
Putin needs the income that his oil industry brings his government. The oil price drop and the Western sanctions against Russia hurt. His favorite industry, however, is gas. Russia controls 70 per cent of gas supplies to Europe and that brings him political advantages, as well as the ability to set falsely high gas prices. Europe's resolve to block trade with Russia will soon weaken during the freezing winter. With no hope of a pipeline bringing Middle Eastern gas through Syria, German-lead Europe will be easier to deal with. Russia is well placed to become Iran's new best friend. Putin is sitting pretty
crvenkasti-
Posts : 29707
2014-04-17
Re: Sirija
by crvenkasti Sat 27 Feb - 23:37
Saudi Arabia itself has a belligerent population and its government keeps the lid on dissent by being very generous with sweeteners for its people. Those subsidies are expensive and now that they are selling oil near cost price, the Saudi government is drawing down its saving.
The Saudis are running out of money and Western governments are starting to realize that they would rather Assad survived in office to help them fight the Saudi-funded ISIS. The comfortable relationship between the governments of Saudi Arabia and the USA seems to have broken down. A growing awareness among the populations of the West that Saudi Arabia funds terrorist organizations makes it harder for those democratic governments to make moves to support the Saudi King. So, Saudi Arabia is losing its big military ally, while Iran, Iraq and Syria become more closely involved with Russia.
Low oil prices have become the new normal. The only way they will ever change is if a large amount of world oil output gets knocked out. It turns out this may be in the cards.
In booting ISIS out of Syria, Russian military planners most certainly will use a strategy called "funneling". Quite simply, with the assistance of allied Iran to the east, Russia will attack ISIS troops anywhere but south, forcing a retreat in that direction, thus "funneling" ISIS fighter south into rival Saudi Arabia. ISIS may find grassroot support within the kingdom and their natural target will first be -as always- oil fields. The resulting shortfall in oil and gas production will enable Russia and Iran to incease military spending and extend their strategical influence on the region, much like the US did.
An unintended consequence of the Saudi attempts to overthrow the government of Syria, may be the overthrow of the government of Saudi Arabia with its own medicine. Should ISIS be pushed into Saudi Arabia, expect oil prices to surge.
The Saudis are running out of money and Western governments are starting to realize that they would rather Assad survived in office to help them fight the Saudi-funded ISIS. The comfortable relationship between the governments of Saudi Arabia and the USA seems to have broken down. A growing awareness among the populations of the West that Saudi Arabia funds terrorist organizations makes it harder for those democratic governments to make moves to support the Saudi King. So, Saudi Arabia is losing its big military ally, while Iran, Iraq and Syria become more closely involved with Russia.
Low oil prices have become the new normal. The only way they will ever change is if a large amount of world oil output gets knocked out. It turns out this may be in the cards.
In booting ISIS out of Syria, Russian military planners most certainly will use a strategy called "funneling". Quite simply, with the assistance of allied Iran to the east, Russia will attack ISIS troops anywhere but south, forcing a retreat in that direction, thus "funneling" ISIS fighter south into rival Saudi Arabia. ISIS may find grassroot support within the kingdom and their natural target will first be -as always- oil fields. The resulting shortfall in oil and gas production will enable Russia and Iran to incease military spending and extend their strategical influence on the region, much like the US did.
An unintended consequence of the Saudi attempts to overthrow the government of Syria, may be the overthrow of the government of Saudi Arabia with its own medicine. Should ISIS be pushed into Saudi Arabia, expect oil prices to surge.
crvenkasti-
Posts : 29707
2014-04-17
Re: Sirija
by Yehudi Sun 28 Feb - 10:01
Da. Plan je bio da se sve provede brzo, kao u Libiji ali kad to nije uspilo sada
ne znaju šta bi.
Neki likuju jer Rusiji ne odgovara niska cijena nafte ali istina je da ne odgovara
nikome. Ekstra štetu imaju upravo Amerikanci jer su se kleli u fraking i uložili
milijarde u infrastrukturu a sada je sve to stopirano jer su troškovi frakinga višestruko
skuplji nego sadašnja cijena nafte.
Bilo kako bilo nama to ne znači ništa jer i kad je barel koštao 120 $ a i sada kad košta 30 $
mi na pumpama plaćamo skoro istu cijenu za litru.
ne znaju šta bi.
Neki likuju jer Rusiji ne odgovara niska cijena nafte ali istina je da ne odgovara
nikome. Ekstra štetu imaju upravo Amerikanci jer su se kleli u fraking i uložili
milijarde u infrastrukturu a sada je sve to stopirano jer su troškovi frakinga višestruko
skuplji nego sadašnja cijena nafte.
Bilo kako bilo nama to ne znači ništa jer i kad je barel koštao 120 $ a i sada kad košta 30 $
mi na pumpama plaćamo skoro istu cijenu za litru.
Yehudi- Posts : 14715
2014-04-20
Re: Sirija
by Yehudi Sun 28 Feb - 11:34
ISIS suffers devastating defeat at Deir Ezzor Airport: 30+ terrorists killed
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/isis-suffers-devastating-defeat-at-deir-ezzor-airport-30-terrorists-killed/ | Al-Masdar News
-------------------------------------------------------
Prije 2-3 dana
Yehudi- Posts : 14715
2014-04-20
Re: Sirija
by Winter is coming Sun 28 Feb - 13:12
Ruska avijacija spržila neku kolonu vozila koja je tek krenula iz Turske,janjičari odmah počeli kmečati kako je bila u pitanju neka "humanitarna" pomoć ili neki kurac,moš mislit,najviše će se razočarati "moderna opozicija" 
_________________
И показа ми чисту реку воде живота, бистру као кристал, која излажаше од престола Божијег и Јагњетовог.
Winter is coming-
Posts : 9181
2014-04-14
Ero- Posts : 13866
2014-04-23
Re: Sirija
by Guest Sun 28 Feb - 13:16
Pržit..nego...Winter is coming wrote:Ruska avijacija spržila neku kolonu vozila koja je tek krenula iz Turske,janjičari odmah počeli kmečati kako je bila u pitanju neka "humanitarna" pomoć ili neki kurac,moš mislit,najviše će se razočarati "moderna opozicija"
Guest- Guest
Yehudi- Posts : 14715
2014-04-20
Re: Sirija
by Guest Sun 28 Feb - 13:19
Zlurado iscekujem da se Turci poskliznu,pa izazovu Ruje da ih naguze samo tako... 
Guest- Guest
Ero- Posts : 13866
2014-04-23
Re: Sirija
by Winter is coming Sun 28 Feb - 13:25
Serdogan si je sam stvorio takvu nepovoljnu situaciju,sad su mu rusi dovukli avijaciju u Jermeniju,Iranci cim dobiju S 300 vjerovatno ce ga staviti blize Turcima,Kurdi ce biti adekvatno naoruzani tako da vise nece biti glineni golubovi a Sirijska vojska uskoro dobro utvrdjena na granici sa Turskom i odgovorice na artiljerijske napade iz Turske a ako onih 350 000 miševa krene,nece se imati sta ni sahraniti od njih
_________________
И показа ми чисту реку воде живота, бистру као кристал, која излажаше од престола Божијег и Јагњетовог.
Winter is coming-
Posts : 9181
2014-04-14
Re: Sirija
by Yehudi Sun 28 Feb - 13:27
RayMabus wrote:Šta je to toliko bitno to koji je tenk ?
Pa i bolje da je bio T-90 jer se jano vidi da mu TOW nije naštetio a kamoli ga uništio.
Dok ovdi vidimo kako je ovaj jadni Ruski projektil ( čak ni - Konkurs - ) jedva doskakutao do superiornog Abramsa M 1 A 1
12. stu 2015.Ramadi Irak
Yehudi- Posts : 14715
2014-04-20
Re: Sirija
by Guest Sun 28 Feb - 13:31
hahahahaha..ebote,doista to cudo skakuce..Yehudi wrote:RayMabus wrote:Šta je to toliko bitno to koji je tenk ?
Pa i bolje da je bio T-90 jer se jano vidi da mu TOW nije naštetio a kamoli ga uništio.
Dok ovdi vidimo kako je ovaj jadni Ruski projektil ( čak ni - Konkurs - ) jedva doskakutao do superiornog Abramsa M 1 A 1
12. stu 2015.Ramadi Irak
enivej,pokusah gledati direktno na tjubu,ali ne da..kaže...improprijetri,radi velicanja ratnih bla bla...odlican video...
Guest- Guest
Re: Sirija
by Winter is coming Sun 28 Feb - 13:33
pravi skakavac 
_________________
И показа ми чисту реку воде живота, бистру као кристал, која излажаше од престола Божијег и Јагњетовог.
Winter is coming-
Posts : 9181
2014-04-14
Re: Sirija
by Winter is coming Sun 28 Feb - 13:39
mozda da nabacaju na tenk vreca sa pijeskom 
_________________
И показа ми чисту реку воде живота, бистру као кристал, која излажаше од престола Божијег и Јагњетовог.
Winter is coming-
Posts : 9181
2014-04-14
Re: Sirija
by Guest Sun 28 Feb - 13:40
vis..dobra ideja..Winter is coming wrote:mozda da nabacaju na tenk vreca sa pijeskom
sad,ne znam jel to skakutanje neki fail,ili je ipak features samog oruzja...?
Guest- Guest
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