Hoće li Recep Erdogan završiti kao Saddam Hussein?

Prije samo nekoliko godina Republika Turska i njen nekad premijer, a sada predsjednik, Recep Erdogan predstavljali su čimbenike koji su bili uvaženi i od zapadnih i istočnih sila. Činilo se kako je turska vladajuća garnitura pronašla model koji im omogućuje da budu važna regionalna sila između Europe i Azije, tj. na Bliskom istoku, ali i šire. Turska je to i postala, ali posljednjih godina izbijanje Arapskog proljeća donijelo je nove izazove na koje Ankara ne zna odgovoriti ili nije u stanju odgovoriti na ispravan način.

Arapsko proljeće bio je događaj koji je dao Turskoj priliku da realizira svoj vanjskopolitički utjecaj sile. Kroz smjenjivanje Erdoganu nedragih vladavina na Bliskom istoku turski lider je pokušao dovesti na vlast one koji bi bili njegovi politički saveznici. Jasnije formulirano - tursko vodstvo nije iniciralo promjene na Bliskom istoku, ali čim su izbile željeli su na njima poentirati.

U novije vrijeme upravo sirijska kriza je dovela do toga da Erdogan malo po malo izgubi potporu Rusije, Sjedinjenih Američkih Država i donekle Europske unije. U tri - četiri mjeseca sve se okrenulo loše za Turke. Najprije su srušili ruski zrakoplov Su-24 u studenom, zatim je uslijedilo zahuktavanje migrantske krize i sukobi s Europskom unijom, a na kraju se počeo Sirijski rat okretati protiv interesa Ankare što je dovelo do turske vojne intervencije i rusko-američkog prekida vatre u Siriji.

Odnosi između SAD-a i Turske toliko su se narušili u posljednje vrijeme da se s pravom možemo zapitati hoće li Recep Erdogan završiti kao Saddam Hussein? Barack Obama je nazvao Erdogana luzerom koji koristi svoju vojsku kako bi destabilizirao Siriju. Postavlja se pitanje hoće li turski predsjednik i njegova vladajuća garnitura biti smijenjeni od strane Amerikanaca (a možda i nekih drugih sila) u nekoj novoj Narančastoj revoluciji ili čak vojnoj intervenciji? Ako bi se nešto od toga dvoje realiziralo Erdogan bi završio na međunarodnom sudu i bio bi osuđen za teška nedjela.

http://www.advance.hr/vijesti/hoce-li-recep-erdogan-zavrsiti-kao-saddam-hussein/

President Erdogan and Turkey's potent political mix
By Owen Bennett-Jones BBC News

• 15 June 2015
  
• From the section World
  

Turkish vote

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The reduced vote for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Islamist-rooted AKP in the recent parliamentary elections in Turkey has thrown the country's politics into a period of deep uncertainty.
Mr Erdogan may not have been a candidate, but many see the vote as a rejection of his plans to bolster the powers of the Turkish presidency.
"He was not officially running for office, but everyone knows this election was about him," Sevgi Akarcesme, a columnist with the opposition paper Zaman Daily, told BBC World Service's Newshour Extra.
"The election was almost a referendum on Erdogan's plans to create a presidential system."
In last year's presidential elections Mr Erdogan won 52% of the popular vote. This time his AKP secured 41%.
Image caption Officials counting votes in Istanbul after the election
The result was a blow to a man with a hitherto remarkably consistent track record of election victories.
Mr Erdogan has already changed his country's political landscape beyond recognition.
He has taken ideas that used to divide Turkish people such as religion, imperial nostalgia and nationalism and forged them into a cohesive ideological base.
He has also overseen a period of steady economic development, creating millions of grateful, conservative, middle-class voters.

'Compatible with democracy'

Mr Erdogan is controversial. Supporters say that he should be credited with having broken the back of military power and entrenched democracy in Turkey.
There is no more talk of military coups overthrowing elected governments.
And some argue that Mr Erdogan's quick acceptance of the recent election result shows that Islamism is, after all, compatible with democracy.
The oft-repeated warning that any Islamist who won power would stop any future elections taking place turns out to have been incorrect.
"Our nation's opinion is above everything else," he said after the result was announced last week.

'More domineering'

But opponents say that Mr Erdogan, isolated in his thousand-room presidential palace and surrounded by sycophants, has become increasingly autocratic.
Street protests have been met with water cannon and critical journalists live in fear of losing their jobs.
"Today in Turkey there is no independent state institutions other than the AKP itself," said former brigadier and independent political commentator Haldun Solmazturk.
"When you ask which democratic institutions he built, there is no answer."
Much of the considerable international attention Mr Erdogan has attracted has focused on his so-called political Islamist project. Image caption George W Bush with Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2004
Back in 2004, US President George W Bush said in Ankara: "I appreciate very much the example that your country has set on how to be a Muslim country which. . . embraces democracy and rule of law and freedom."
Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and other Western leaders have made similarly hopeful remarks about Mr Erdogan establishing an Islamic democracy.
But while Western politicians and journalists tend to see Turkish politics as an argument between Islamists and secularists, there are, in fact, many other fault lines in Turkish society.

Not just religion

For many Turks issues such as class, inequality, economic development, corruption, civil liberties and ethnicity are just as important as the role of religion in politics.
"Moderate Islam, Islamism, political Islam mean something to Westerners," Haldun Solmazturk told Newshour Extra. "In Turkey we seldom, if ever, use these terms."
While some Westerners hanker after the creation of a model of political Islam that they could live with, it's far from clear that Mr Erdogan ever had such a project in mind.
Rather, his ascent can be seen as a case of a highly capable politician using his political base and some powerful ideas to win and hold on to power.
And he has not relied exclusively on questions of faith.

Višestruki zajeb efendije Redžepa.

teško da bi on mogao završiti na sudu, jer bi se s pravom moglo postaviti pitanje zašto se ne sudi drugim predsjednicima odnosno premijerima velikih sila koji su do grla u skuobima na bliskom istoku, dok erdogan djeluje uglavnom na teritoriju turske te plitko u teritoriju sirije u tzv. zoni domašaja topničkog oružja....smatram da je najbezbolnije rješenje nekakva 'automobilska nesreća', 'pad zrakoplova' itd., nije da se tako stvari već nisu rješavale.....

Opet se sramežljivo pojavila ideja da bi ga vojska mogla srušiti pučem, kako se to u TR znalo

dogoditi. Medjutim znajući koliko je visokih časnika umirovio i još više poslao na robiju, čini

 se da je tu mogućnost sveo na minimum.

   Možda neki infarkt mozga, srca ili crijeva ( već ima rak crijeva) pa bi se B. Istok malo primirio.

 Kurdi bi dobili još jedan nacionalni praznik.

Starhemberg wrote:Višestruki zajeb efendije Redžepa.

Kad je čačkao po BiH prije 7-8 godina, to je već bio prvi problem. No njegovo pravo lice se pokazalo onog trenutka kad je el-Sisi izvršio puč i uklonio divljačku stoku koja je preuzela Egipat i redom krenula masakrirati kršćane i nepodobne muslimane. Totalno je prolupao od toga jer se baš na Egiptu toliko bio uživio da to je bilo gadljivo gledati i slušati. Na Siriji i tim nesretnim ljudima se onda odlučio iživljavati s McCainom i Kerryjem. Kad je vidio što Kurdi rade, sad je u totalnoj komi i udara gdje god Kurda ima van Turske i sad u njoj. A još da ne govorimo cenzuriranje i zatvaranje svih onih koji ga raskrinkavaju zadnjih 5-6 godina zbog plivanja u korupciji, kao i svog malog sinčića koji mu je terenski radnik u svemu tome.
Davno je trebao biti izvršen državni/vojni udar na njega.