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Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by Kermit 14/10/2015, 18:38
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/10/14/uk-economy-migrants-analysis-idUKKCN0S80GT20151014?utm_source=facebook
Kermit-
Posts : 26479
2014-04-17
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by Kermit 14/10/2015, 18:38
Europe's ageing economy may just find that the biggest refugee crisis since World War Two gives it a new lease of life - even if huge uncertainty about the future scale of immigration and how refugees are integrated cloud any long-range forecasting.
With winter approaching, the dramatic flow into Europe this year of people fleeing poverty and war in the Middle East and Africa slowed only marginally in September.
Some 170,000 'irregular migrants' entered the European Union last month, according to the bloc's border agency Frontex, taking the total for the year so far to 710,000.
That's already almost three times the number for all of 2014 and is widely forecast to top 1 million by year-end.
Some private estimates are for net immigration into the 19-nation euro zone this year of as many as 1.6 million people.
For months, stories of human tragedy and endeavour have jostled with tales of chaos and confusion on Europe's land and sea borders. In the process, the institutional shortcomings of the European Union were exposed as it struggled to decide how many to take in and where to register and settle them.
Germany committed to taking 800,000 asylum seekers on its own. The EU plans to distribute 120,000 across its 28 members.
But as the weeks and headlines have passed, economists too have been forced to make assessments of what this migrant shock could mean for such a relatively rich economy, but one that has been staring at years of ebbing birth rates, workforces and achievable economic growth rates.
Although laced with caveats, most forecasters quickly flag up the positive impact migrants may have on waning working age populations and evaporating 'potential growth' rates - defined as the sustainable pace possible without stoking inflation.
Estimates of euro potential growth had slumped alarmingly below 1 percent since the financial crash seven years ago, with a legacy of debt and dour demographics meaning few saw an upturn without surging immigration or higher retirement ages.
Just who is rescuing whom in this crisis becomes a moot point.
Swiss bank Credit Suisse said it's now working off estimates that over the next five years net immigration will boost the euro area's population by about 5 million, equivalent to 1.5 percent of the current 340 million.
And assuming public spending to provide for those granted asylum has a one-for-one 'multiplier' on gross domestic product, it reckoned that adds 0.2-0.3 percentage points to euro growth next year.
More durably, euro 'potential output' growth will be lifted by 0.2 points above official assumptions to 1.3 percent on average over the eight years through 2023, the Credit Suisse report added, with growth this year alone exceeding European Commission forecasts by up to half a percentage point.
"The positive effects are likely to be front-loaded given the needs for housing and the fact that the marginal propensity to consume for people who arrive with almost nothing is roughly one," it said. But "economic growth should continue to benefit in coming years as young migrants start to become integrated into the labour market."
HSBC economists arrived at a similar 0.2 percent boost to potential growth. "Potential GDP by 2025 could be 300 billion euros higher than it would have otherwise been," they wrote.
Calculations based on average expenditure on each migrant of some 12,000 euros per year indicate that extra German federal, state and local government spending alone could be as much as 10-12 billion euros in 2016 - or 0.3-0.4 percent of German GDP.
Deutsche Bank lifted its 2016 German growth forecast to 1.9 percent from 1.7 percent, citing the immigration surge that it said would add about half a percentage point to overall consumption growth.
RUNNING TO STANDSTILL
But is this economic shot really transformative in a world of multi-decade demographic problems?
"Migration has been the biggest engine of demographic growth in the EU as a whole since the mid-1990s," said the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's migration report. "It is about to become the only one."
To keep it in context, Germany needs about 700,000 in net immigration over the next 10 years to keep its population stable, HSBC said, citing United Nations data. Its pledge on new arrivals will just stop its workforce falling for one year.
"For all the fuss about immigration, there is simply too little of it to show any significant global economic impact at all on (longer-term) demographic changes," said a paper by U.S. bank Morgan Stanley last month.
But that's based on migration to date. Future migrant numbers are potentially massive, even if imponderables such as Syria's conflict or the willingness and ability of EU countries to keep borders open make it impossible to forecast.
Frontex estimates over 4 million Syrian, Afghan, Iraqi and Pakistani citizens remain in 'temporary protection' in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt.
Britain's Ministry of Defence cites studies saying 60 million people from sub-Saharan Africa may move from 'desertified' areas to north Africa and Europe by 2020.
Even if they do arrive unfettered, however, the skill sets they bring and future training available may make all the difference to host economies. The euro zone has a shortage of workers, but it already has a big surplus of unskilled labour.
HSBC said headline Commission estimates of a 7.5 million excess of new jobs being created over the next 10 years mask a 23 million excess of low-skilled workers over that time - heavily concentrated in France and Italy - and a 32 million shortage of medium and high-skilled employees.
With winter approaching, the dramatic flow into Europe this year of people fleeing poverty and war in the Middle East and Africa slowed only marginally in September.
Some 170,000 'irregular migrants' entered the European Union last month, according to the bloc's border agency Frontex, taking the total for the year so far to 710,000.
That's already almost three times the number for all of 2014 and is widely forecast to top 1 million by year-end.
Some private estimates are for net immigration into the 19-nation euro zone this year of as many as 1.6 million people.
For months, stories of human tragedy and endeavour have jostled with tales of chaos and confusion on Europe's land and sea borders. In the process, the institutional shortcomings of the European Union were exposed as it struggled to decide how many to take in and where to register and settle them.
Germany committed to taking 800,000 asylum seekers on its own. The EU plans to distribute 120,000 across its 28 members.
But as the weeks and headlines have passed, economists too have been forced to make assessments of what this migrant shock could mean for such a relatively rich economy, but one that has been staring at years of ebbing birth rates, workforces and achievable economic growth rates.
Although laced with caveats, most forecasters quickly flag up the positive impact migrants may have on waning working age populations and evaporating 'potential growth' rates - defined as the sustainable pace possible without stoking inflation.
Estimates of euro potential growth had slumped alarmingly below 1 percent since the financial crash seven years ago, with a legacy of debt and dour demographics meaning few saw an upturn without surging immigration or higher retirement ages.
Just who is rescuing whom in this crisis becomes a moot point.
Swiss bank Credit Suisse said it's now working off estimates that over the next five years net immigration will boost the euro area's population by about 5 million, equivalent to 1.5 percent of the current 340 million.
And assuming public spending to provide for those granted asylum has a one-for-one 'multiplier' on gross domestic product, it reckoned that adds 0.2-0.3 percentage points to euro growth next year.
More durably, euro 'potential output' growth will be lifted by 0.2 points above official assumptions to 1.3 percent on average over the eight years through 2023, the Credit Suisse report added, with growth this year alone exceeding European Commission forecasts by up to half a percentage point.
"The positive effects are likely to be front-loaded given the needs for housing and the fact that the marginal propensity to consume for people who arrive with almost nothing is roughly one," it said. But "economic growth should continue to benefit in coming years as young migrants start to become integrated into the labour market."
HSBC economists arrived at a similar 0.2 percent boost to potential growth. "Potential GDP by 2025 could be 300 billion euros higher than it would have otherwise been," they wrote.
Calculations based on average expenditure on each migrant of some 12,000 euros per year indicate that extra German federal, state and local government spending alone could be as much as 10-12 billion euros in 2016 - or 0.3-0.4 percent of German GDP.
Deutsche Bank lifted its 2016 German growth forecast to 1.9 percent from 1.7 percent, citing the immigration surge that it said would add about half a percentage point to overall consumption growth.
RUNNING TO STANDSTILL
But is this economic shot really transformative in a world of multi-decade demographic problems?
"Migration has been the biggest engine of demographic growth in the EU as a whole since the mid-1990s," said the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's migration report. "It is about to become the only one."
To keep it in context, Germany needs about 700,000 in net immigration over the next 10 years to keep its population stable, HSBC said, citing United Nations data. Its pledge on new arrivals will just stop its workforce falling for one year.
"For all the fuss about immigration, there is simply too little of it to show any significant global economic impact at all on (longer-term) demographic changes," said a paper by U.S. bank Morgan Stanley last month.
But that's based on migration to date. Future migrant numbers are potentially massive, even if imponderables such as Syria's conflict or the willingness and ability of EU countries to keep borders open make it impossible to forecast.
Frontex estimates over 4 million Syrian, Afghan, Iraqi and Pakistani citizens remain in 'temporary protection' in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt.
Britain's Ministry of Defence cites studies saying 60 million people from sub-Saharan Africa may move from 'desertified' areas to north Africa and Europe by 2020.
Even if they do arrive unfettered, however, the skill sets they bring and future training available may make all the difference to host economies. The euro zone has a shortage of workers, but it already has a big surplus of unskilled labour.
HSBC said headline Commission estimates of a 7.5 million excess of new jobs being created over the next 10 years mask a 23 million excess of low-skilled workers over that time - heavily concentrated in France and Italy - and a 32 million shortage of medium and high-skilled employees.
Kermit-
Posts : 26479
2014-04-17
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by omni 14/10/2015, 18:41
Hoce svakako, procvat necega.
omni-
Posts : 7009
2014-04-12
Lokacija: : 9 krug
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by Kermit 14/10/2015, 18:42
Zanimljivo da svi članci od domaćih i stranih pamflet sranja su indentični ono nevjerojatno emigrani su svi doktori, liječnici, profesori, željni rada i integracije kao da Japan emigrira u Evropu a ne Afrika i bliski istokomni wrote:Hoce svakako, procvat necega.
Kermit-
Posts : 26479
2014-04-17
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by dijagram 14/10/2015, 18:50
Ima logike, Europa je u kurcu a muje dolaze iz podneblja gdje vlada blagostanje.
Sto ih vise dodje prije ce i kod nas krenuti cvat:)
Sto ih vise dodje prije ce i kod nas krenuti cvat:)
dijagram-
Posts : 18912
2015-08-09
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by prckov 14/10/2015, 18:51
elem, elite se zabrinule za sirotinju i nasli rjesenje
_________________
It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigotet adherents of the party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies and nosers-out of unortodoxy.
Orwell 1984
prckov- Posts : 34555
2014-04-19
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by Kermit 14/10/2015, 18:52
Svi na socijalu, žene u čadore a muški domino i čajarenje, nije loše. a Švedi i Švabe nek dirinčedijagram wrote:Ima logike, Europa je u kurcu a muje dolaze iz podneblja gdje vlada blagostanje.
Sto ih vise dodje prije ce i kod nas krenuti cvat:)
Kermit-
Posts : 26479
2014-04-17
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by dijagram 14/10/2015, 18:55
Ako malo zapnu sve ce biti u redu.asilovski wrote:Svi na socijalu, žene u čadore a muški domino i čajarenje, nije loše. a Švedi i Švabe nek dirinčedijagram wrote:Ima logike, Europa je u kurcu a muje dolaze iz podneblja gdje vlada blagostanje.
Sto ih vise dodje prije ce i kod nas krenuti cvat:)
Nijemci to mogu, migranti ce im drzati palceve:)
dijagram-
Posts : 18912
2015-08-09
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by Guest 14/10/2015, 19:08
Kad bi shvatili sad ovo na pravi način, što bi zaključili?...Priprema se vaš um za novu stvarnost...omni wrote:Hoce svakako, procvat necega.
Guest- Guest
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by mutava baštarda 14/10/2015, 19:43
Procvat za zaštitarske poslove, tvornice bodljikave žice, prodavače alarmnih sustava, životnog osiguranja,...
_________________
Iduća dva tjedna su ključna
mutava baštarda- Posts : 21037
2015-09-14
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by Guest 14/10/2015, 19:51
tako neštomutava baštarda wrote:Procvat za zaštitarske poslove, tvornice bodljikave žice, prodavače alarmnih sustava, životnog osiguranja,...
Guest- Guest
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by epikur37 14/10/2015, 20:02
samo trpaj
epikur37- Posts : 45339
2015-08-06
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by seksoje1 14/10/2015, 20:12
...zatim oštrače noževa, trgovce ovčetinom i lojem, tiskare će cvasti tiskanjem hadisa i proglasa, krojači će profitirati na skraćivanju nogavica.mutava baštarda wrote:Procvat za zaštitarske poslove, tvornice bodljikave žice, prodavače alarmnih sustava, životnog osiguranja,...
seksoje1- Posts : 97
2015-09-25
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by Kermit 14/10/2015, 20:21
a vidi oni to još nazovu "Analizom" strašno baš strašnoseksoje1 wrote:...zatim oštrače noževa, trgovce ovčetinom i lojem, tiskare će cvasti tiskanjem hadisa i proglasa, krojači će profitirati na skraćivanju nogavica.mutava baštarda wrote:Procvat za zaštitarske poslove, tvornice bodljikave žice, prodavače alarmnih sustava, životnog osiguranja,...
Kermit-
Posts : 26479
2014-04-17
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by mutava baštarda 14/10/2015, 20:52
Za kurac im je. Prosječan Hrvat može pušiti priče oko partizana, ustaša ili četnika, ali to neće popušiti. Trebaju uložiti u slikovnice pa krenuti od nove generacije.asilovski wrote:a vidi oni to još nazovu "Analizom" strašno baš strašnoseksoje1 wrote:...zatim oštrače noževa, trgovce ovčetinom i lojem, tiskare će cvasti tiskanjem hadisa i proglasa, krojači će profitirati na skraćivanju nogavica.mutava baštarda wrote:Procvat za zaštitarske poslove, tvornice bodljikave žice, prodavače alarmnih sustava, životnog osiguranja,...
Last edited by mutava baštarda on 14/10/2015, 21:02; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : debeli prsti)
mutava baštarda- Posts : 21037
2015-09-14
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by Guest 15/10/2015, 08:15
u nekom trenutku, ako se ovako nastavi, imace aparthejd, u novom izdanju ili formi, ali to je to.
u rodjenim zemljama, iskustvo sa najezdom i afirmacijom nekih drugih, nama nije nepoznato.
u rodjenim zemljama, iskustvo sa najezdom i afirmacijom nekih drugih, nama nije nepoznato.
Guest- Guest
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by mutava baštarda 15/10/2015, 08:33
Kako to da najveći otpor trpanju postoji na istoku EU. Koji je razlog tome. Generacije odgajane u strahu od unutarnjih i vanjskih neprijatelja? Vlasništvo na nekretninama?
_________________
Iduća dva tjedna su ključna
mutava baštarda- Posts : 21037
2015-09-14
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by Guest 15/10/2015, 08:36
narodi na istoku su vrlo cesto, istorijski gledano, brzo i cesto gubili svoju drzavnost, suverenitet i sl. zato je strah na istoku i balkanu toliko snazan.
Guest- Guest
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by mutava baštarda 15/10/2015, 08:46
Strah i oprez su opravdani. Mene veseli kad vidim države poput Češke, Slovačke, Mađarske, Poljske,...
_________________
Iduća dva tjedna su ključna
mutava baštarda- Posts : 21037
2015-09-14
Re: Reuters: masovna emigracija će napraviti procvat u Europi
by Kermit 15/10/2015, 09:05
Jer nisu imali ispiranje mozga zapadnog tipa, nisu imali kolonije i nemaju osjećaj bilo kakve krivnje, nije došlo do potpuno rastakanja tkz. trad. društva, a osim toga usađena im je ksenofobija i dobro znaju šta bude kad netko dođe nepozvan a masovno ili oni ili mi...međutim ovdje su zamjenjene teze u biti Zapad tj. evropu treba zaštiti od samog zapada i njegovih liberalnih elita a ne od istoka, on je samo posljedica politike istih tih elita zapada, drugim riječima nisu bitni emigranti već pusićke, barbare, junckeri, merkelice i sl. šljam ili kao ona Tena Štivičić koja obožava emigrante, ali se seli u škotske visoravni jer isti smrde...mutava baštarda wrote:Kako to da najveći otpor trpanju postoji na istoku EU. Koji je razlog tome. Generacije odgajane u strahu od unutarnjih i vanjskih neprijatelja? Vlasništvo na nekretninama?
Kermit-
Posts : 26479
2014-04-17
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