Bloomberg: Protukineski jastrebovi sve jači u američkoj administraciji

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-24/trump-s-china-hawks-prepare-to-swoop-as-trade-talks-go-nowhere

Trump's China Hawks Prepare to Swoop as Trade Talks Go Nowhere
Shawn Donnan
The U.S.’s trade war with China is about to get uglier. After a long, hot summer spent weighing risks and firing warning shots, the hawks in President Donald Trump’s administration have gained the upper hand -- and they’re set to unleash a fall offensive.
Talks in Washington between the world’s two largest economies yielded little visible progress last week toward a cease-fire. Looming instead are new tariffs that Trump has threatened to impose on some $200 billion in annual imports from China, and Beijing’s already-promised retaliation.
“We’re facing an escalating trade war over the next few months,” says David Dollar of the Brookings Institution, who served as the U.S. Treasury’s top man in China under the Obama administration.
Even before the latest talks broke up, the signals weren’t hard to read. Earlier this year, the president publicly overruled Steven Mnuchin and ripped up a deal the Treasury secretary had struck with Liu He, his Chinese counterpart.

Hawks Won

In the past week, while the two sides were talking, the U.S. slapped tariffs on a further $16 billion in Chinese imports. Retaliation by Beijing will bring the amount of trade affected by the dispute to $100 billion, with more to come.
While Trump’s trade-policy comments in recent days have been focused on securing a Nafta deal with Mexico, the president also celebrated new restrictions on investment from China.


“Not enough focus has been put on China. And that’s been for a long time,” the president told legislators gathered at the White House on Thursday to mark the passage of a law giving yet more powers to the already powerful Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., which can block acquisitions on national security grounds.
And on Friday, Trump’s officials were huddled in Washington with counterparts from Europe and Japan, discussing how to push China into changing course.
It all adds up to what many analysts see as a win for the president’s China hawks, in the debate over how to tackle the first major strategic rival the U.S. has faced since the end of the Cold War.

‘Spectrum Shift’

Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, says the hawks’ victory is reflected in the way U.S. demands have evolved in recent weeks.
When Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross led missions to Beijing earlier this year, one key priority was securing increased purchases of American soybeans, LNG and other commodities, to reduce a bilateral trade deficit that’s been a persistent obsession for Trump.
A few months on, the administration’s goals are more maximal. It’s demanding the kind of long-term structural changes to Chinese policy -- such as ending industrial subsidies and intellectual-property theft -- that hawks including Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. trade representative, and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro have been pushing for. “A spectrum shift,” Kennedy calls it.

Disentangling Economies

That doesn’t mean that internal trade battles at the White House are over. The hawks are eyeing an even more ambitious agenda, says Kennedy: A long-term disentanglement of the two economies, with the goal of bringing supply chains back from Asia to the U.S.
"After a few rounds of shooting, the two sides still don’t understand each other well," according to Zhou Xiaoming, a former commerce ministry official and diplomat who’s now a senior fellow at the Center For China & Globalization in Beijing. "The US wants to crush China by escalating the trade war, but it won’t work."

‘Like My Mom’

Chad Bown, a trade expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says the administration’s end-game remains unclear.
At home, there’s growing unrest in the business community and among consumers. In hearings last week, a procession of small and medium-sized companies complained about the forthcoming tranche of tariffs, which will hit some 6,000 products ranging from seafood to bicycles.
Bown has seen firsthand how the trade war is arriving in American homes. Tariffs are about to make his mother’s quilting supplies more expensive -- and “there’s a big community of quilters out there like my mom.”
“More and more Americans are going to feel this,” he says. “We haven’t gone through a moment like this before. Politically, I’m not sure how it ends.”
The rude health of the U.S. economy is probably giving Trump room to escalate. Businesses may complain about tariffs, but they’re also reaping the benefits of the president’s tax cuts. Dollar, the Brookings analyst, says the real economic effect of Trump’s trade moves may not be felt until well into 2019.

‘So Far’

Federal Reserve policy makers have flagged a trade war as a major risk to the economy -- but one that’s still over the horizon. On Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell predicted more “strong growth” accompanied by gradual interest-rate increases. He didn’t mention trade at all.
Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, told Bloomberg TV in an interview that policy makers need to keep a close eye on how U.S. business responds to the tariffs. In her own district, said Mester, companies are studying their impact.
“But so far they haven’t reacted strongly,” she said. “They haven’t taken off investment that they had planned.”
(Updates with comments from former Chinese commerce ministry official.)

Hektorović wrote: The hawks are eyeing an even more ambitious agenda, says Kennedy: A long-term disentanglement of the two economies, with the goal of bringing supply chains back from Asia to the U.S.

Dakle razvod.

China foresees new Cold War with U.S.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Trump. Photo: Xinhua/Li Tao via Getty Images

A senior official from the State Council's Development Research Center is arguing that President Trump's trade war is part of a broader plan to contain China.
Driving the news: The U.S. is expected to impose tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese imports as soon as next week, Bloomberg reported yesterday, with no denial from Trump.

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The South China Morning Post summarized the commentary by Long Guoqiang:
“With the US labelling China as a strategic rival, Sino-US relations will experience a deep structural change,” he said. “As two major powers, it is normal for China and the US to engage in both cooperation and competition … We should abandon our illusions in facing the [trade] war, while at the same time remain rational and work hard to maintain overall stability.”..
Long’s commentary is the latest in a series of articles in People’s Daily over the last month apparently aimed at addressing growing scepticism over whether the Chinese economy will be able to weather the increasing pressure from Washington...
“China has changed from seeing this as primarily a trade conflict to now seeing it as part of a strategic competition,” said Wang Yong, director of the Centre for International Political Economy at Peking University. “So now China is preparing for a prolonged battle – and also for the worst-case scenario of a new cold war, or even a hot war.”
The bottom line: Both sides look to be preparing for a much more contentious relationship.

Najjače su mi price, vratiti proizvodnju u USa.. Ali kako? U USA je full zaposlenost, fali im 200 000 inzinjera u državi za nove pogone... Ekonomija USA nemoze biti bolje... Doslovno... Ostaje jedino Trumpu od ekonomskih izazova da počinje rezati javni dug..
Inače znate li da je Trump zamrznuo rast plaća svim uhljebima u USa sektoru osim vojsci i policiji? To je bilo jučer

Ako se svijet ne bude ponašao kako treba Amerika će mu staviti sankcije :D

Šta piše?

AssadNaPodmornici wrote:Najjače si mi price, vratiti proizvodnju u USa.. Ali kako? U USA je full zaposlenost, fali im 200 000 inzinjera u državi za nove pogone... Ekonomija USA nemoze biti bolje... Doslovno... Ostaje jedino Trumpu od ekonomskih izazova da počinje rezati javni dug..
Inače znate li da je Trump zamrznuo rast plaća svim uhljebima u USa sektoru osim vojsci i policiji? To je bilo jučer

Koliko ja pratim, politika bi išla ka povećanju produktivnosti, robotizaciji, novoj imigraciji iz europe...


Milijun, dva,... poljaka, rumunja,...

AssadNaPodmornici wrote:Najjače su mi price, vratiti proizvodnju u USa.. Ali kako? U USA je full zaposlenost, fali im 200 000 inzinjera u državi za nove pogone... Ekonomija USA nemoze biti bolje... Doslovno... Ostaje jedino Trumpu od ekonomskih izazova da počinje rezati javni dug..
Inače znate li da je Trump zamrznuo rast plaća svim uhljebima u USa sektoru osim vojsci i policiji? To je bilo jučer

Steve LeVineAug 26
[size=9]SAVE[/size]

The coming yearlong U.S. trade war with China

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

The United States' trade war with China is likely to last much longer than originally thought — extending well into the second half of next year and perhaps beyond, experts say. 
The main reason: Neither side is prepared to appear politically weak at home, and both are ready to absorb economic pain.

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Why it matters: The winners of a one-year or longer trade war without resolution are not clear, but here are some of the probable losers: 

• In the U.S.: Farmers, users of steel, and consumers. And in earning calls last week, U.S. retailers "were sounding the alarm" about yet another escalation of tariffs threatened by President Trump, reports Axios' Courtenay Brown.
  
• In China: Manufacturers of all types will see business leave to neighbors like Vietnam and Malaysia, experts tell Axios.
  
• For both: Economic growth will be slightly less next year, and — depending on other factors such as the psychology of stock and commodities markets — there is a small chance that part or much of the world tips into recession. 
  

The background: Last week, the two sides boosted the tariffs to cover $100 billion in trade between the countries. As early as Sept. 6 — 10 days from now — the U.S. may substantially escalate, levying tariffs on $200 billion in trade, and Beijing is expected to strike back.
The aim: Trump says he is determined to get China to stop hacking U.S. commercial secrets and forcing American companies to disgorge their intellectual property to Chinese rivals. 

• But while that is the intellectual backdrop, politically speaking, neither Trump nor China's Xi Jinping can be seen publicly buckling under to the other.
  
• And, for economic reasons, neither feels he has to. The tariffs are unlikely to inflict a killer blow. "No question it will be bad, but not calamitous" for the U.S. or China, says Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  
• Adding to the time clock: On the U.S. side, Trump's most hawkish advisers actually wantthe talks to go on longer because they smell blood. They think the tariffs threaten the Chinese miracle, and want to wait for the suffering to start biting, report the WSJ's Lingling Wei and Bob Davis. 
  

Trump namjerno to radi, nabija sankcije svima od EU do Kine i njemačke jer su sve zemlje bile u plusu spram Amerike.. Inače cijeli svijet koristi njemački porezni sustav (i Rusija i Kina) koji je efikasniji kod trgovinske razmjene, zato Amerika puši, a ovoga luđaka boli kita, zatvara USA od svih i bye bye globalizacija

AssadNaPodmornici wrote:Trump namjerno to radi, nabija sankcije svima od EU do Kine i njemačke jer su sve zemlje bile u plusu spram Amerike.. Inače cijeli svijet koristi njemački porezni sustav (i Rusija i Kina) koji je efikasniji kod trgovinske razmjene, zato Amerika puši, a ovoga luđaka boli kita, zatvara USA od svih i bye bye globalizacija

Promjena paradigme, posebno ovaj novi odnos spram Kine

Walmart je prepun jeftinog smeća iz kine, kojim kina financira gradnju flote koja je usmjerena konta usa...

To što Ameri uvode sankcije u trgovini sa svijetom, neosporiv je pokazatelj slabosti i očaja.

Onaj tko je jak, taj se ne boji konkurencije.

Naprotiv, slobodna trgovina njemu služi da bude još jači.

Nije baš tako jednostavno crveni. Problem je germsnski porezni sustav u cijelom svijetu osim u USa, Britaniji, Australiji itd koji je štetan za amere.. Plus kinezi su imali hrpu nevidljivih carina sa kojima su ometali usa izvoz u kinu itd..

AssadNaPodmornici wrote:Nije baš tako jednostavno crveni. Problem je germsnski porezni sustav u cijelom svijetu osim u USa, Britaniji, Australiji itd koji je štetan za amere.. Plus kinezi su imali hrpu nevidljivih carina sa kojima su ometali usa izvoz u kinu itd..

Ne samo nevidiljive carine, nego je veliki problem i intelektualno vlasništvo... Kinezi sve kopiraju.

AssadNaPodmornici wrote:Najjače su mi price, vratiti proizvodnju u USa.. Ali kako? U USA je full zaposlenost, fali im 200 000 inzinjera u državi za nove pogone... Ekonomija USA nemoze biti bolje... Doslovno... Ostaje jedino Trumpu od ekonomskih izazova da počinje rezati javni dug..
Inače znate li da je Trump zamrznuo rast plaća svim uhljebima u USa sektoru osim vojsci i policiji? To je bilo jučer

Automatizacija...npr zamjena za Meksikance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBmFH7fNxnA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUjceXYqm-I

AssadNaPodmornici wrote:Najjače su mi price, vratiti proizvodnju u USa.. Ali kako?

Uvozom radne snage sa specifičnim znanjima i vještinama.
Ne kažem da je to sad realno, ali je ipak moguće. Tako je uostalom Amerika i postala gospodarska velesila.

Founding Father wrote:
Automatizacija...npr zamjena za Meksikance:

I to je dobar recept, naravno. No, mukotrpan i dugotrajan. Usvajanje radikalno novih tehnologija na širokom spektru proizvodnje ipak zahtjeva određeno vrijeme.
Japan umjesto da uvozi vozače teških vozila iz kojekakvih zemalja razvija software koji će ih zamijeniti, ali taj razvoj traje dugo, a SAD ionako ima tradiciju uvoza radne snage određenih kvalifikacija prvo iz Europe, a onda i iz Azije pa i drugih dijelova svijeta. Oni su imigrantska nacija i to njima generalno ne predstavlja problem, druga je priča što su se sad našli u situaciji da moraju paziti iz kojih će zemalja uvoziti radnu snagu, posebno visokokvalificirane stručnjake.

Tariffs by September
According to the Office of the US Trade Representative:

• The additional 6,031 product lines would be hit with a 10 percent tariff.
  
• The list is subject to two months of finalization and input before possible implementation by President Donald Trump.
  
• The earliest they would come into effect is September.
  
• The products include various food items, chemicals, minerals, tobacco, electronics and office goods.
  
• ......................................................................................
  

hebat će nanu Kinezima, nove carine za 200milijarde dolara izvoza:)

No, zaključak je da je itekako moguće vratiti proizvodnju u SAD, ali je za to potrebno vrijeme, a i morala bi se platiti i određena cijena, a pitanje je postoji li bar neki okvirni konsenzus po tom pitanju u SAD-u.

Speare Shaker wrote:No, zaključak je da je itekako moguće vratiti proizvodnju u SAD, ali je za to potrebno vrijeme, a i morala bi se platiti i određena cijena, a pitanje je postoji li bar neki okvirni konsenzus po tom pitanju u SAD-u.

U administraciji očito postoji.

Na koncu ovo je Bannon još prije dolaska Trumpa na vlast postavio kao prioritet...