Talijanski referendum: opasnost za euro?

Činjenica je da loša ekonomska situacija slabi Renzijevu poziciju. Još uvijek je oko 12 posto Talijana bez posla, među mladima je nezaposlenost mnogo viša, 40 posto. Privredni učinak je danas niži nego prije deset godina. A zaduženost države iznosi više od 130 posto bruto nacionalnog dohotka, što je u eurozoni, nakon Grčke, najveća zaduženost.

"Ne" na referendumu je za brojne Talijane mogućnost da daju oduška svom nezadovoljstvu. To je "Ne" neoliberalnim reformama. "Ne" mjerama štednje. "Ne" establišmentu. "Ne" euru i EU. "Trump je pokazao da se može pobijediti unatoč svemu i svima", kaže Matteo Salvini, šef desno-populističke stranke Lega Nord.
"Ne" bi moglo izazvati šok na financijskim tržištima, strahuje Europska središnja banka (ESB). "Ovisno o stupnju šoka trebamo odvagati moramo li nešto učiniti ili ne", rekao je zamjenik predsjednika ESB-a Vitor Constancio. Već četiri dana nakon referenduma ESB bi sa sastanka vijeća banke mogla poslati signal kako bi umirila tržišta. Dalje ublažavanje monetarne politike bi naravno ionako već glasne kritike iz Njemačke još pojačalo.


"No najveći rizik nije referendum, nego ekonomska stagnacija", navode analitičari Lombard Street Researcha. Jer to ne koči samo Italiju, nego cijelu eurozonu. "Problem je to da euro ne može funkcionirati sa sadašnjim članovima i osim toga da je ekstremno nesocijalan", kaže ekonomist LSR-a Charles Dumas. Nijemci bi zapravo trebali potpuno drugačiju monetarnu politiku nego Talijani, kaže Dumas. "To populistima osigurava solidnu bazu. Oni nakon talijanskog referenduma imaju još brojne mogućnosti da uzdrmaju establišment EU."

http://www.dw.com/hr/talijanski-referendum-opasnost-za-euro/a-36606301

Ukoliko Talijani budu većinom zaokružili "Da" u zemlji će moći biti provedene temeljne reforme, vjeruje premijer Matteo Renzi. Ukoliko budu glasali protiv, to bi mogao biti početak kraja eurozone. Prema rezultatima većine provedenih anketa očekuje se da će Talijani zaokružiti "Ne", dakle odbiti reformu Ustava čiji je cilj smanjenje ovlasti i veličine Senata, drugog doma talijanskog parlamenta.


Financijska tržišta su nervozna uoči talijanskog referenduma. Dobit na talijanske državne obveznice se udvostručila na više od dva posto - što je indicija za to da raste nesigurnost kod investitora.

Njihov argument glasi ovako: "Ne" bi bila pobjeda populista i protivnika eura. Oni bi onda prvom sljedećom prilikom mogli preuzeti vlast. Pokret "Pet zvjezdica", najveća talijanska opoziciona stranka, želi da građani glasaju o članstvu u euro-zoni.

Ustajte prezreni na svijetu.

Nek narod odluči.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-01/how-december-4th-could-trigger-most-violent-economic-shock-history

How December 4th Could Trigger The "Most Violent Economic Shock In History"




[size=10]by Tyler Durden
Dec 2, 2016 3:30 AM
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Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,
It was the one moment that convinced Hitler suicide was better than surrendering.
On the morning of April 29, 1945, the bodies of Italian dictator Benito Mussolini and his mistress were dumped like garbage into Milan’s Piazzale Loreto.
A large mob of Italians quickly gathered. They pelted the former leader’s corpse with vegetables. They spat on it. They urinated on it. Some even emptied their pistols into his lifeless body.
After a few hours, the crowd hung the bodies from a metal girder at a nearby gas station for all to see.

The corpse of Benito Mussolini

I walked through Piazzale Loreto during a recent trip to Italy, which is suffering its worst economic downturn since 1945. And I realized that Italians are angrier now than they’ve been since they hung Il Duce up by his heels.
Italy has had no productive growth since 1999. Real GDP per person is smaller than it was at the turn of the century.
That’s almost two decades of economic stagnation. By any measure, the Italian economy is in a deep depression. And things will probably get much worse.
It’s no surprise Italians are in a revolutionary mood...
The Five Star Movement (M5S) is Italy’s new populist political party. It’s anti-globalist, anti-euro, and vehemently anti-establishment. It doesn’t neatly fall into the left–right political paradigm.
M5S has become the most popular political party in Italy. It blames the country’s chronic lack of growth on the euro currency. A large plurality of Italians agrees.
M5S has promised to hold a vote to leave the euro and reinstate Italy’s old currency, the lira, as soon as it’s in power. That could be very soon.
Given the chance, Italians probably would vote to return to the lira. If that happens, it would awaken a monetary volcano.
The Financial Times recently put it this way:
An Italian exit from the single currency would trigger the total collapse of the eurozone within a very short period.
It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash.
If the FT is even partially right, it means a stock market crash of historic proportions could be imminent. It could devastate anyone with a brokerage account.
Here’s how it could all happen…
On December 4, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s current pro-EU government is holding a referendum on changing Italy’s constitution.
In effect, a “Yes” vote is a vote of approval for Renzi’s government.
A “No” vote is a chance for the average Italian to give the finger to EU bureaucrats in Brussels.
Given the intense anger Italians feel right now, it’s very likely they’ll do just that.
According to the latest polls, the “No” camp has 54% support and all of the momentum. Even prominent members of Renzi’s own party are defecting to the “No” side.
If the December 4 referendum fails, Renzi has promised to resign. Even if he doesn’t, the loss would politically castrate him. In all likelihood his government would collapse. (Italian governments have a short shelf life. There have been 63 since 1945. That’s almost a rate of a new government each year.)
One way or another, M5S will come to power. It’s just a matter of when. If Renzi’s December 4 referendum fails—and it looks like it will—M5S will likely take over within months.
Once it’s in power, M5S will hold a referendum on leaving the euro and returning to the lira. Italians will likely vote to leave.
Italy is the third-largest member of the Eurozone. If it leaves, it will have the psychological effect of yelling “Fire!” in a crowded theater. Other countries—notably France—will quickly head for the exit and return to their national currencies.
Think of the euro as the economic glue holding the EU together. Without it, economic ties weaken, and the whole EU project unravels.
The EU is the world’s largest economy. If it collapses, it would trigger an unprecedented global stock market crash. That’s how important Italy’s December 4 referendum is. It would be the first domino to fall.
December 4 referendum fails >> M5S comes to power >> Italians vote to leave the euro currency >> European Union collapses
Almost no one else is talking about this. That’s why I just spent several weeks in Italy, taking the pulse of the country.
Italy’s December 4 referendum could make or break your wealth this year. If it fails, the EU, which has the world’s largest economy, will likely fall apart… triggering an epic stock market crash.

Da točno Azila , mediji šute o tome .....zabili su glavu u pijesak i misle da ce tako nešto riješiti tj da se nece desiti ...Italija treca ekonomija eurozone.

By by bejbe by

Oprezno treba odvagnuti prednosti i nedostatke, ne treba srljati.

Nemaju oni šta srljat , ja sam otiša iz te Italije kad su lire zamjenjene eurima ....shranje im je napravilo , pao standard preko noci .....oni nemaju šta izgubit više.

Novac je povjerenje a stabilnost neke države u ovom slucaju ta država je eurozona kao monetarni sistem utjece na razinu tog povjerenja .....euro ce počet padat u odnosu na ostale svijetske valute a izglasaju li ovi izlazak iz eurozone šta je 100% ako Bepo se dohvati vlasti na na putu je : to je

KRAH

Talijani neće glasati za napuštanje Eura

PANIKA U BRISELU Ako Renci izgubi na referendumu, HITAN SASTANAK
Beta | 03. 12. 2016 - 13:50h

U krugovima Evropske unije se razmišlja o sazivanju vanrednog susreta vođa EU ako bi italijanski premijer Matero Renci sutra izašao kao gubitnik na referendumu o ustavnoj reformi.

http://www.blic.rs/vesti/svet/panika-u-briselu-ako-renci-izgubi-na-referendumu-hitan-sastanak/ltm9m6l

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